A Planet on the Brink

The 2025 state of the climate report:
a planet on the brink

The Scientists Warning team has published their 2025 State of the Climate report in Bioscience on 29 October 2025. William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Michael E. Mann, Johan Rockström and their co-authors are alarming in their observations and conclusions, of which excerpts follow.

"We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer future threats but are here now. This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction, unsustainable economic systems, and misinformation. Almost every corner of the biosphere is reeling from intensifying heat, storms, floods, droughts, or fires. The window to prevent the worst outcomes is rapidly closing. In early 2025, the World Meteorological Organization reported that 2024 was the hottest year on record. This was likely hotter than the peak of the last interglacial, roughly 125,000 years ago. Rising levels of greenhouse gases remain the driving force behind this escalation. These recent developments emphasize the extreme insufficiency of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mark the beginning of a grim new chapter for life on Earth."

Key Highlights of the report:

• The year 2024 set a new mean global surface temperature record, signaling an escalation of climate upheaval.

• Currently, 22 of 34 planetary vital signs are at record levels.

• Warming may be accelerating, likely driven by reduced aerosol cooling, strong cloud feedbacks, and a darkening planet.

• The human enterprise is driving ecological overshoot. Population, livestock, meat consumption, and gross domestic product are all at record highs, with an additional approximately 1.3 million humans and 0.5 million ruminants added weekly.

• In 2024, fossil fuel energy consumption hit a record high, with coal, oil, and gas all at peak levels. Combined solar and wind consumption also set a new record but was 31 times lower than fossil fuel energy consumption.

• So far, in 2025, atmospheric carbon dioxide is at a record level, likely worsened by a sudden drop in land carbon uptake partly due to El Niño and intense forest fires.

• Global fire-related tree cover loss reached an all-time high, with fires in tropical primary forest up 370% over 2023, fueling rising emissions and biodiversity loss.

• Ocean heat content reached a record high, contributing to the largest coral bleaching event ever recorded, affecting 84% of reef area.

• So far, in 2025, Greenland and Antarctic ice mass are at record lows. The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may be passing tipping points, potentially committing the planet to meters of sea-level rise.

• Deadly and costly disasters surged, with Texas flooding killing at least 135 people, the California wildfires alone exceeding US$250 billion in damages, and climate-linked disasters since 2000 globally reaching more than US$18 trillion.

• Climate change is endangering thousands of wild animal species; more than 3500 species are now at risk and there is new evidence of climate-related animal population collapses.

• The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening, threatening major climate disruptions.

• Climate change is already affecting water quality and availability, undermining agricultural productivity, sustainable water management, and increasing the risk of water-related conflict.

• A dangerous hothouse Earth trajectory may now be more likely due to accelerated warming, self-reinforcing feedbacks, and tipping points.

• Climate change mitigation strategies are available, cost effective, and urgently needed. From forest protection and renewables to plant-rich diets, we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly.

• Social tipping points can drive rapid change. Even small, sustained nonviolent movements can shift public norms and policy, highlighting a vital path forward amid political gridlock and ecological crisis.

• There is a need for systems change that links individual technical approaches with broader societal transformation, governance, policies, and social movements.

Conclusions

"The accelerating climate crisis is now a major driver of global instability. Extreme weather is causing widespread impacts and direct loss of life, while also driving resource scarcity, displacement, and civil unrest. These challenges are further compounded by weakening international cooperation and reductions in foreign aid. These converging pressures are straining national governments, multilateral institutions, and communities around the world. A strategy that embeds climate resilience into national defense and foreign policy frameworks is urgently needed. Without it, cascading risks may overwhelm systems of peace, governance, and public and ecosystem health."

"Avoiding every fraction of a degree of warming is critically important. We are entering a period where only bold, coordinated action can prevent catastrophic outcomes. Social tipping points, moments when shifts in policy and public norms rapidly accelerate, offer a critical pathway to progress. But, unlocking these tipping points will require courageous leadership, public engagement, and widespread institutional change. Climate policy must be consistent with what is scientifically and ethically required, regardless of political concerns. Delay only increases the human and environmental toll."

"To ensure a livable and just future, we must confront the deeper challenge of aligning human civilization with the limits of the Earth’s natural systems. Transformative change is needed to address ecological overshoot and the worsening climate emergency. This includes reducing overconsumption, particularly among the affluent, stabilizing the human population through the empowerment of girls and women, shifting toward plant-based food systems, providing safe water and sanitation to all, and adopting economic models that prioritize well-being, equity, and sustainability over perpetual growth. These systemic shifts are necessary to safeguard the biosphere and promote long-term well-being."

"Climate change is a threat to ecosystem and human health, but it is also fundamentally a social justice issue. We are disproportionately harming the vulnerable and marginalized — those least responsible for the crisis. As we confront rising seas, burning forests, and destabilized communities, we must remain guided by a commitment to justice, dignity, and the common good. The future is still being written. Through choices in policy, investment, education, and care for one another and the Earth, we can still create a turning point. It begins by embracing our shared humanity and recognizing the profound interconnectedness of all life on the planet."

SOURCE: for the full paper, see https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaf149 or download the paper at: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/…