The urgency of Multi-risk early warning systems in Latin America and the Caribbean

Multi-risk early warning systems (TMS) have become essential tools for mitigating these impacts. These systems integrate weather monitoring, risk analysis, community communication, and response protocols. Its objective is to anticipate threats and activate protection mechanisms before they materialize. In 2024, LAC suffered 74 major disasters that affected nearly 7 million people and caused economic losses estimated at $10 billion.

Disorderly urban sprawl, deforestation, forced displacement of populations, lack of housing policies for marginalized sectors, poverty, and inequality in land allocation, aggravate the exposure of vulnerable communities to these risks. Therefore, strengthening the MTS is not only a technical issue, but also a political and social priority.

The extreme events that most threaten urban and rural populations in LAC include:

1. Hurricanes and tropical storms: They mainly affect the Caribbean, Central America and the Atlantic coast of South America. They cause flooding, destruction of infrastructure and mass displacement.

2. Flash floods: Common in urban areas with insufficient drainage and in rural river basins. They cause loss of life, agricultural damage and collapse of basic services in urban areas.

3. Prolonged droughts: They seriously impact rural communities dependent on agriculture. They generate food insecurity and forced migration.

4. Forest fires: They increase in frequency due to climate change and deforestation.  They affect ecosystems, biodiversity, properties, human health and wildlife.

5. Heat waves and extreme weather events: They especially affect vulnerable urban populations, such as the elderly and people without access to refrigeration.

6. Earthquakes and landslides: Although less frequent, they have devastating impacts in densely populated mountainous and poor urban areas.

The combination of these events, along with social factors such as poverty, limited access to basic services, and a lack of resilient infrastructure, exponentially increases the risk for millions of people.

According to projections by the IDB and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), if early warning and community resilience systems are not strengthened, LAC could face: More than 35 million people will be directly affected by natural disasters. With accumulated economic losses of more than 60,000 million dollars and between 15,000 and 20,000 avoidable deaths due to extreme events.

These costs are not only reflected in destroyed infrastructure or lost lives, but also in setbacks in human development, education, public health, and economic stability. Rural, indigenous and coastal communities are the most vulnerable, and often the least served by conventional warning systems.

Investing in multi-risk early warning systems (TMS), community education, resilient infrastructure, and climate governance can reduce these impacts by up to 60%, according to estimates by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

In 2022, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres launched an urgent call: "Every person on Earth must be protected by an early warning system within the next five years." This declaration gave rise to the global initiative "Early Warnings For All" led by UNDRR and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Key objectives of the initiative:

- Universal early warning coverage by 2027.

- Strengthening local and regional capacities.

- Integration of Early Warning Systems in public policies and urban planning.

- Climate finance for developing countries.

- Inclusion of vulnerable communities in the design of warning systems.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, this strategy is being implemented through platforms such as Hidromet, which brings together experts, governments, and civil society to coordinate regional efforts. Countries such as Colombia have made progress in democratizing access to climate information, translating technical forecasts into clear messages for rural communities. In Panama, like many countries in the region, the guidelines have been given but there is still a long way to go before they are put into action.

The goal for 2027 is ambitious but achievable: that no citizen of the world is unprotected from natural disasters. This involves not only technology, but also education, community participation, and political will.